The southern alliance has been defeated (at least mentally) and we're likely entering the final stages of the game, with TdT (CRISPR) on track to win. My guess is we have a few days of gameplay left as both alliances wrestle to see who comes out on top.
Through the wormhole there are huge Sea Serpent, Beez, Ragnar and HRE fleets stored and mostly not fighting each other. My main risk and worry at the moment is what happens if Sea Serpent and Beez ally with the northern pair. I will have a very short response time. I'm consulting with my allies about how a war with Sea Serpent and Beez would look. I worry it would be a victorious war, but not necessarily very positive for me. I am the most exposed to war with that group.
I think objectively, I'd be wise to launch a pre-emptive attack on HRE, but I'm going to let him make the first move. He's honoured our peace and like us, has refused direct requests to attack us. I think I owe him the responsibility of making the first aggressive move (I'd perceive any large fleet movements in my direction as aggressive). I will only break that stance if Ragnar attacks an ally elsewhere. As soon as he or Ragnar pull the trigger I will respond.
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