Trani - 1 Feb 21:00 - Tick 235 Cycle 11

My Specialists are starting to make a breakthrough against Ktoc, but... 

Darrow is now an AI. 

Inerz has attacked Anita

I've been particularly scheming since the last update. 

It's all happening.

Strategic

• To get to 80 stars I need to control all my existing territory (36), all of Ktoc's (+11 to 47), Dust's (+2 to 49) all of Darrows (+24 to 73) and 7 additional stars from Inerz. 
• Once I secure Dust's heavily developed Infrastructure I will have a big advantage. I need to capture two more of Ktoc's systems to prevent him sharing Weapons tech across with Dust. I'll then attack with my new Saboteur and capture these with minimal losses.
• Funny - I wrote this half an hour ago and then went and had dinner - No further indication that Darrow is going to attack me, or Inerz. Inerz has his hands full but Darrow has made a strategic mistake not making any allies and turtling. It's similar to what he did in the last game we played together. You can't win Solaris by defending. Update: Darrow is now an AI and has changed his diplomatic status to enemies and there was a fight immediately on Chothi with Darrow losing his 220 ships. This is a bit of a shame for the game but very good for me.
• I've provided some more direct support via a tech trade (Specialists 5 to Inerz who previously had Specialists 2 for Weapons 6 to me) and advice suggesting they may want to work with Denizen to push back against Anita and Gilgamesz. The aim here is not to actually help Inerz defeat Gilgamesz which a) I don't believe they can do even if I stay neutral b) I wouldn't allow to happen anyway. This is purely to slow Gilgamesz/Anita's march north down whilst cultivating good relations for the off chance I need a beaten down but not defeated Inerz as an ally later.

Diplomatic

• Tech between me and Gilgamesz is diverging a lot as we each become a little slower to share. At the same time Gilgamesz and Anita are closer aligned than ever on tech. Previously Gilgamesz was a little slow to share tech across with Anita (likely asking for payment for it since Anita cannot keep up on science) but this seems to have accelerated. 
• There was no way Gilgamesz wasn't going to notice Inerz jumping from 2 to 5 specialists tech so I've pre-emptively told him about my trade and said I'll share Weapons 6 with him. The angle here is that I'm pretending to be Inerz ally (which I guess I am to an extent, though I've tried to be very straight with Inerz and not committed to anything more than the tech trade, I've said I need time to defeat Ktoc) this way Inerz has more specialists to repel Anita/Gilgamesz, I have better weapons to accelerate the defeat of Ktoc and Gilgamesz has better weapons too. I think this is a really good outcome for me but there is a risk Gilgamesz won't see it this way. 

Tactical

• There has been a back and forth between me and Ktoc now for a while and I still think he has some tricks up his sleeve but I've now got solid defensible borders and active specialists at the front lines. I am pressing him and I think he will collapse quickly from here.
• The border with Gilgamesz is slowly militarising (via Industry build up rather than carrier deployments). I'm completely fine with this. There is nothing on the border that troubles me from a defensive perspective and I don't intend to attack. Infact, with greater ship production and better logistics it's in my interest for Gilgamesz to have more ships on my border, away from the action, not capturing Inerz or Denizens stars.

Where are the Specialists and what are their orders?

• General Bison - Move to and defend the Chothi Asteroid Field on Darrow border.
• Saboteur Slug - Attack Ktoc 
• Colonel Octopus - Move away from Chothi now that Bison is arriving and participate in attacks on Ktoc's remaining systems.
• Colonel Cockroach - Following succesful defense of Jyeshtha againt Ktoc participate in a counter-offensive to take New Florence from Ktoc
• Infiltrator Cat - Work with General Bison to defend the Chothi Asteroid Field/Darrow border.
• Pathfinder Seagull - Operating as a standard carrier on the Ktoc Eastern Front.
• Pathfinder Squid (KIA, by Ktoc)

How do I lose this game?

With Darrow now an AI I assess my chances of winning as greater than 85% but it's not certain. A chess habit that can be quite useful when you're ahead and have the edge. Stop and think about what needs to happen for you to lose the game. So how do I lose this game?

• Scenario A) Gilgamesz attacks me whilst Anita/Inerz are fighting and catches me off guard. This is impossible. Gilgamesz won't beat me in a 1v1 at the moment and he doesn't have the logistics or force posture to pull this off. We can put this aside.
• Scenario B) Gilgamesz and Inerz get in a chat with each other and say "hey Necria is winning, look he's won all these games. Shall we work together to take him out?" In this scenario I don't win but I think this would require some strong diplomacy from them both. I don't know if Inerz is scheming enough for this, and I don't know if Gilgamesz is disloyal enough. I assess this as a possibility but 5-10% likely. I think it's even less likely now Inerz has attacked Anita. I think Gilgamesz will feel obliged to defend her. The only way I can defend against this outcome if it happens is by quickly defeating Ktoc, and then at the first sign of a Gilgamesz betrayal hitting him hard and using geography on my side and hoping to get momentum.
• Scenario C) Gilgamesz goes in hard on Inerz with Anita. They break through quickly, meanwhile Ktoc frustrates me and my invasion of Darrow takes longer than anticipated. In this way, by the time we reach the endgame Gilgamesz/Anita are approximately as strong as me or stronger. They subsequently work well together to defeat me. I think this is unlikely, but plausible 5%.

All in all, I think I'm on the path to victory now. I need to make sure Gilgamesz doesn't flip or turn against me in the next 24-48 hours which should be very easy diplomatically and then I just let my snowball gather momentum as it rolls around the north.